2022/01/31 比特幣分析

上篇文章中我們提到我對於整體還是屬於看空

此反彈並沒有帶起許多交易量 但是!

Last time I mentioned about I'm still bearish on the BTC market, But!

我們現在看到他開始在底部形成一個小的收斂三角突破

Right now we're see BTC is forming a small descending triangle in the bottom.

形成圖形之後下一個步驟就是看交易量是否"遞減"

When the pattern is formed, next step is to check if our trading volume is descending or not.

這個遞減對我來說代表著兩個意思

首先就是圖形"正在累積交易量"

這樣當突破/跌破的時候會更有力道

另外一個就是當形成這種交易量遞減 我們自然就可以畫出一個交易量的下降壓力線

當圖形突破之後 我常說突破要帶量(交易量)

這時候的交易量的下降壓力線就可以幫助我們觀察此突破/跌破"是否有量"

This volume descending has 2 meaning for me.

Firstly, it can show if the pattern is accumulating volume when the price is breaking up/down.

This can help to move more power to up/down side.

Second, when we have volume descending, we can draw a downtrend line for trading volume.

As I always says, we need to see breakout with volume.

Then this downtrend line is easier for us to "judge" if this breakout is with volume or not.

那38400會是一個短期的關鍵阻力點位

In the immediate short term, 38400 will be an important resistance to break.

如果未來我們價格超過38400 但是並沒有帶量的站上去 我並不會選擇進場

If we don't see volume coming in, but breaking 38400, I will not put a long position here.

因為對我來說突破沒有帶量 代表這個阻力有可能不成立了

To me, the breakout without volume, it could means that this resistance doesn't exists.

上升力道就會減少 整體的贏面就會相對地比較小

Overall, the winning rate for me is lower.

做空的點位會比較難拿捏 因為我們的支撐是往上的

Our short position it's harder to make the decision, this is because our support line is ascending.

現在我們已經到收斂三角的尾部(快沒空間)

Now we're at the end of this pattern (almost no space)

我個人會認為在37700 如果帶量跌破這點位 這裡可以小做一個賣空單

但是不推薦放大單 因為在這個上升過程中 我們已經形成了好幾個盤整的點位

"理論上"來說這些都會是一個短期的支撐 但是也有可能一口氣貫穿到底部

Personally I think 37700 will be a small short position.

I don't put bigger position it's because we have many small support coming in soon.(if we break down)

But, it could also breaking down by once.

記住 技術分析不是預測價格 而是對於價格的"反應"

Remember, Technical analysis is not predicting the price, it's reacting to price

而且他都叫技術"分析" 不是技術"預測"

It's called Technical analysis, not Technical prediction.

這點各位一定要記清楚