2022/02/04 BTC技術分析 BTC Technical analysis

承上篇文章 昨日我們看到BTC跌破短期趨勢線

Yesterday we see BTC price has broke down the short term trend line.

但是現在我們並沒有看到很多的交易量進來

But now we're not seeing many trade volume coming in.

我認為我們現在還在測36693(藍色平行線)

I think we're still retesting 36693 (the blue line), which is the previous low.

也就是上一波的低點 這裡短期看起來是有一個支撐的

如果我們這裡使用費波納契數列

If here we use Fibonacci Retracement, we can see price is retesting 0.382 line.

我們看到目前價格回測正踩在0.382做回測

這裡解釋一下費波納契數列的用意

So here I'm going to explain what's the meaning of Fibonacci Retracement.

在不管上升或是下跌趨勢中 我們幾乎不會看到一根k棒直接漲非常非常多

Either we're in a uptrend or downtrend, we usually don't see just one candle stick to the moon.

好比說台積電(TSMC) 他不會一口氣直接從100漲到600

For example we don't see TSMC stock price goes 100 from 600 just by few candle stick.

在這上漲過程中他會形成Higher high-Higher low型態

In this uptrend, the price will forming Higher high- Higher low configuration.

那這種情況下 他就有可能出現的Higher low就會踩在這些回測點位上面

In this kind of situation, when price goes to retest, it has higher chance that the price is going to these levels.

但要知道的是 這不一定會成立!

But be careful! It's not always correct.

因為費波納契的使用方法是找出"你認為"這波行情的起漲點到最高點位

How to use Fibonacci Retracement is to choose the low in this uptrend to the highest of candle stick.

即使我們的看法相同 但是市場不一定也會這樣認為

So even we have same idea, but the market maybe doesn't think so.

所以費波納契數列主要是幫我們輔助有時候找不到明顯支撐的一種方法

So Fibonacci Retracement is assisting us to find when support is not very clear.

但是我並不會拿費波納契數列當作我的主要參考

Overall, I won't use Fibonacci Retracement as my main trading strategy.