2022/02/07 BTC技術分析 BTC Technical Analysis

好幾天都沒寫文章了 原因如下

It's been few days I haven't update my article, here's why.

自上篇文章我們看到4小時突破之後BTC就持續上揚

From last article we see 4 hour BTC broke out, it's still going quiet strong until now.

只要沒有跌破重要支撐中短期都是很健康的狀態

As long as we didn't break the important support, we're still in a bull trend.

記住 跌破支撐 支撐變阻力 突破阻力 阻力變支撐

Remember when we broke down Support, Support became Resistance.

When we broke up Resistance, Resistance became Support.

現在我們看日線圖 看起來是突破下降楔型

From daily candle, we're having Falling Wedge.

但其實還是有條件沒有達成 也就是交易量

But it's not a perfect breakout, this breakout is without volume.

交易量我們可以看到其實是有遞減 但是突破是沒量的

We can see our volume is descending, but when we breakout it's still in the downtrend line.

接下來由於前面跌勢很兇 我們未來也有更多的阻力要進來

Since we have a big drop before, in the future we'll having more Resistance coming in.

現在中短期我認為重要的是45671這價格帶(黃色平行線)

In the intermedium short term, I believe 45671 will be a important Resistance.

我認為現在可以先做一些低檔進場 但是如果強勢跌破某個價位需要立即做止損

I think we can put some long position now, but if we're breaking down with some certain level, we need to put a stop loss.

這裡說某個價格帶是因為每個人的風險承受能力不同 我自己的話我會偏向兩個支撐帶

Here I said certain level it's because everyone's risk tolerance is different. For myself I'll prefer this two support.

一個是40600 也就是上次的阻力現在變成支撐 跟 黃色上升趨勢線(約莫在37780)

One is at 40600 which is the last Resistance now became Support, and the uptrend yellow line(around 37780)

因為記得 我們這次的上漲是沒有大量的 當賣壓一進來時 買力很容易被壓過去

Because remember, this uptrend is not with a huge volume coming in, when the selling pressure coming in, buying power is going to lose easily.

接下來我們來看4小時圖(看我畫綠圈的地方)

Now let's take a look at 4 hour chart (Pay attention to green circle)

上次我說我是買在突破黃框的最上面 確定完整突破我才做買進

Last time I take a leverage position at the 40600.

入場價格在39409 這裡你可以說我們有一個雙底(或是W底的突破)

My entry price is at 39409, you could say we have a double bottom(W pattern is also ok)

圖形最基本的要求就是看懂阻力與支撐

The very basic requirement of Technical Pattern is know how to draw Resistance and Support.

W底的買進點位在於頸線 "剛好"也是我們下降楔型的阻力位置

The Neckline of W pattern is perfectly hit the Falling Wedge's Resistance.

所以在這裡不管是哪個圖形 在這種情況下39600都會是最重要的阻力位

So here, no matter which pattern it is, in this kind of situation, the most important resistance is at 39600.

圖形有了之後看"交易量是否遞減" 那又很剛好的交易量遞減 並且最後"突破"下降的壓力線

When we have Technical Pattern, next is to check if volume is descending or not, and perfectly again, we have descending volume and broke out of this downtrend.

所以這裡做槓桿單是完全沒有問題的 但是日線我就比較沒有那麼想買進 因為沒有量

So for leverage long position it's totally fine, but for daily candle I'm not that interested(Cause the volume is not so many)

接下來看RSI 相對強弱指數 RSI的看法也非常簡單 數值超過70就是超買 低於30就是超賣

Next up we're looking at RSI index, when the number is over 70 which is overbought territory, lower than 30 which is oversold territory.

超買-市場的買單>賣單 造成市場行情過熱 價格往上噴

Overbought-Market's buying order>Selling order, which cause the market overheated, the price will move up fast.

超賣-市場的買單<賣單 造成市場行情過冷 價格往下掉

Oversold-Market's buying order<Selling order, which cause the market super cooling, the price will move down fast.

目前我們看到4小時的RSI已經很明顯位於超買區域一段時間了

Now we're seeing 4 hour RSI is clearly in the overbought territory for a while.

理論上短期內我們應該會看到一個短期修正

In theory, in the short term we should see a small correction in the short term.

因為一個正常的市場很少會讓RSI一直往上

Cause a normal market won't let RSI keep going up to the moon.

所以就短期槓桿單來講我比較不推薦

So overall, short term leverage long position, I'm not very recommend to long(buy)

首先沒有圖形 第二RSI已經過熱

First of all, we don't have any pattern, second RSI is overheated.

然後現在我們又有上一波的阻力進來 位於43900

And now we're having previous Resistance coming in now, which is 43900.

對於日線來說 我覺得已經可以開始進一些單 (如果有爆量我會推薦買進)

For daily candle, I think we could put some small long position.(If we breakout with volume , it will be a very good buying point.)

但是首先不要進太多 第二 有強烈的往下趨勢就要小心了

But first of all, don't put too many long position, second if we have a strong breakdown, we also need to be cautious.